We've got a podcast covering some of this, but a little more/different spin here.

TEAMS WHICH ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE NCAA TOURNAMENT PARTICIPANTS

Minnesota - Definitely disappointing, but some of that (or a lot of it, actually) is probably a result of how much they overachieved in Ben Johnson's first year with a "mid major All Star" group of six ironmen who played almost all the minutes. This year, while he's still got some transfers, you can see that Johnson is actually trying to start to build his program as a sustainable deal, and it's been a struggle. Exacerbating things has been the injury issues Jamison Battle has faced. Last year Battle was tremendous...averaged 17.5 ppg and 6.3 rpg and shot 45 and 37%. This year, he's averaging 12.9 ppg and 3.5 rpg on 35/34 shooting. I think lingering effects from the surgery he had on his foot have held him back and when a team like MInnesota takes that kind of hit, it's a big deal. If he can find last season's form, he's good enough (combined with Dawson Garcia) to spring an upset or three, but it's likely going to be a long, tough road for Johnson this year as he begins to establish his "real" program.

Nebraska - They're 7-6 and in there was a big upset win over Creighton (which unfortunately lost a lot of luster as the Blue Jays' season has absolutely cratered afterward) and a hard nosed loss to Purdue which honestly should have been a Husker win. They also beat Florida State and Boston College...bad Power 5 teams but Power 5s nonetheless. I think they're better...they're WAY better defensively than they've been...but the trouble is it's still not good enough to be anything beyond a spoiler. They'll surprise a couple of people along the way, but they just can't win enough to be seriously in the Tournament hunt.

TEAMS IN THE HUNT BUT CAN'T QUITE TRUST THEM JUST YET

Northwestern - NU has been beyond legit defensively. They are #8 in defensive efficiency. If they can keep that up, that will allow them to be competitive in most Big Ten games. The question mark is, can they score enough to win enough to get a bid? Their interior offense is pretty non-existent, so it's going to have to ride on Buie, Audige and Berry. Those guys are capable of going off at any time but they also take horrible shots...way too often (they did not in East Lansing, which helped them spring the upset). Right now, I think they'd have a great shot of getting in, but it's still way too early to know if they can win enough league games to make that a reality in March. I think the offense is going to be an issue. Their shooting numbers are off the charts bad. They're in with a chance, which is far better position than we've seen in about 5-6 years from them at this time of the year.

Penn State - I really like watching this team play. Pickett is my favorite non MSU player in the league this year...so unconventional and plays the game entirely at his pace. They have shot the ball exceptionally well...#10 in the nation from 3 and #82 from 2. They are also #1 in TO%, so they are getting a ton of shots up. They've also been respectable defensively. My issue here is on two fronts. First, I think if they were in some other high major leagues, I'd like their chances better. The lack of size PSU can feature is likely going to pose some real defensive issues for them, and they're not missing many of the better bigs in the conference...they face Purdue twice, M twice, Rutgers twice, Wisconsin twice, etc. Now, they'll counter by playing ultra small ball and forcing those bigs to have to extend defensively, often against a legit three point threat. My second issue is that when you are that reliant upon jump shooting, it can be tough to sustain success over the long haul. I love their grit and Shrewsberry is doing a fantastic job, IMO, but this is a flawed team and their flaw in particular doesn't seem to match up well in this particular conference. Definitely not out of anything by a long shot, though.

Iowa - If Kris Murray were without question, I wouldn't have them in this category. I know he's coming back, supposedly by the first Big Ten game in January. If that happens and if he's truly back in the swing quickly, then put the Hawks up a level, because it's once again a super efficient offense (though not good at all from 3). The defense is once again sub 100, and so that's a big concern, but Murray at the level he was pre Duke is enough to carry them into the field IMO. If he struggles and if they take some losses while he's trying to get back, that could put them behind the 8 ball a bit. They're away to Nebraska, Rutgers and PSU and home against IU over the first 10 days of the Big Ten restart, and they've already taken a home loss to Wisconsin. If they're 1-4 or 0-5, that could create a challenge. So, it's wait and see time here.

Maryland - They had a fantastic start, really impressive. Blew out a decent St. Louis team. Blew out a Miami team which, for now at least, is looking as if they may contend for the ACC title. Took out Illinois at home. Things were impressive. Donta Scott lost 20 pounds and looked fantastic, the transfer guards seemed to be blending in well, and Reese showed glimpses of his star potential. THen came grinder losses to Wiscy and Tennessee (no shame in those) but an embarrassment at home vs. UCLA. The numbers still look mostly good...they're sound defensively, they shoot 2s very well and though the Turgeon fullback dive offense isn't around anymore, they still get to the line well. However, the number which scares me is the 3 point shooting...they're #234 in the nation at 32%. I still *think* they're probably good enough to get in, but they lack depth and their best players have been struggling of late. Plenty of time to find their groove again, but the last couple of weeks brought back at least a little skepticism IMO.

Michigan - This one is a Rorschach test if I've ever seen it. Those who choose to believe M will find its way will point to narrow losses against UK, UNC and UVa. Those who doubt them will point to narrow wins against the likes of EMU, Ohio, Jackson State and Lipscomb, and the fact that they don't have a quality win yet (Minnesota doesn't count this year). Look, any team with Dickinson and Jett Howard, and with the recent emergence on offense of Kobe Bufkin, has enough firepower to win shootouts against anyone in this league on a given night. However, there are real problems here. This is a bad defensive team right now...really bad. Last year they weren't good, but they're worse right now, and I'm not certain they have the personnel to fix much of it. They chose to enter the season with a transfer PG who wasn't a PG and now he's hurt, which leaves a freshman they didn't want to rush like this...they now have no choice. He's been OK so far...on offense. OK. On defense...well, let's just say he's fit the overall profile. So, yeah, they'll win some games, no question...they'll outscore some people. My question is, can they do that enough, or fix the defense enough, to win enough to get a bid? 10-10 might do it...with the league sitting where it is, I'd probably lean toward saying "yes" to a bid for them if they can get there, though it will matter who the wins come against, obviously. I'm certainly not burying them yet, but to act as if a wand is going to get waived which solves their very real issues strikes me as wishful or fearful thinking, take your pick. They've got a LOT of work to do.

Rutgers - I like this team, but they've done just enough stupid s*** to make you wonder if it all comes together. They are back to playing pure Pikiell ball after a couple of years where they weren't quite as good defensively or on the offensive glass...currently #4 in defensive efficiency and #40 in OReb %. Their problem is the one they used to have back a few years ago...they are an awful shooting team. 30% from 3, good for #308 in the land. They're OK from 2 but not great there either. There are things to really like here...Omoruyi has become a complete center and deserves mention with the better ones in the conference IMO. I love their big guards when healthy, which they are now. My problem is, one, I don't trust the shooting and two, they can't sustain consistently good performances. They beat IU and should have beaten Ohio State...then flop at home to a mediocre Seton Hall team. Beat Wake Forest impressively but lose to Miami and Temple. Some of it, especially early, is attributable to health, I think, and as they're now healthier, perhaps they'll find a consistent level of play. I think at their best, they're a quality group of grinders who will find a way. Can they be at their best often enough?

Michigan State - I liked what I saw in the first four games a lot. We haven't seen anything close to that lineup since. The Malik Hall thing is somewhat similar to what Iowa's facing with Murray (the unknown as to how long it takes him to get fully "back") except MSU doesn't depend on Hall as much. Still, he's a critical piece. There are things to really like here. This team shoots the 3 very well and even after a bad performance against Oakland, the TO and defensive rebounding problems of recent seasons have been vastly improved. I think they've got to find a way to get more out of the offensive boards and two point shooting has been awful...hard to win when you're not better in the paint than MSU has been. I would be surprised (obviously) if this team were to miss the Tournament but how long it takes Hall to get back to where he was (playing very well in the first few games) will be important. I can see a wide, wide range of potential outcomes for MSU, but I'll say this...when you have strong guard play, as MSU does, that generally is going to bode well for you. I don't think there's a team in the league which is even close to MSU's quality when you talk about Hoggard, Walker and now Akins, who was one of the big bright spots in the Oakland game. Most teams in this league have questions in the backcourt...it looks to me as if MSU has answers.

IU - I'd be surprised to see them fail again to make the Tournament, but Big Ten title contention? I don't see it. The injury to Xavier Johnson *might* be a blessing in disguise, because I am convinced he is not a winning player, but I don't know if I believe in Hood-Schifino as the real answer at the point. They're shooting it much better than they have in years overall, but in the losses (at least Rutgers and KU), it's been a lot like what we've seen in recent seasons. At the end of the day, I still question the guard play. Not even just the shooting but the decision making, the inability or unwillingness to get the ball to TJD nearly as often as it should get there. There's a fragility about this team psychologically IMO that does not appear to have been fixed and that is going to be a problem.

Illinois - Speaking of psychological fragility...I just don't see it with this group. Not that I think they're likely to miss the Tournament, but as any real threat to win anything of significance? A ton would have to change and I don't believe in Brad Underwood as a guy who can or will do that. He's got a mostly new roster and the lack of coherency should have been expected, but instead you got a lot of preseason thumping about "Guard U" and being better than ever and other assorted nonsense. The wins over UCLA and Texas look very good and will likely look great in March, but they were humiliated by Missouri last night. Penn State whipped their *** before that *IN C/U*. I won't get into locker room issues or other chemistry stuff that's being talked about in IlliniLand right now, but I will say a young backcourt is, predictably, doing the things young backcourts tend to do...missing a lot of 3s (#171 in the country at 33%) and turning the ball over relentlessly (#292 in TO%). Lately, the defense has looked all kinds of disconnected as well. I think Underwood needs to figure out a rotation quickly and stick to it to give this team a chance to gel, because right now, it's not happening.

Wisconsin - Oh, look...another year where most people discount the Badgers and here they are at 9-2 and 2-0 in the league, with a road win at Iowa. Even the losses aren't too bad...the KU OT loss is totally fine and while losing to Wake at home isn't great, the Deacs did just beat Duke, so we'll see what they are in the ACC when push comes to shove. Wisconsin this year misses Johnny Davis, no surprise, and the offense is struggling. They're taking care of the ball as usual and really hitting 3s nicely (37.4%, just behind MSU). However, they can't hit 2s to save their lives and of course have zero OReb presence. They're also not getting to the line and when they do, they don't shoot well. The defense, however, is saving the day. #17 overall. The one thing which would concern me is that a lot of it is because they've done very well against 3s... that tends to be streaky, and they're mediocre inside the arc, so that will need to improve. They're also repeating last year's trick of winning close games...5-2 in games with a 5 point margin or less. Can that continue?

Ohio State - A lot to like here. Once again, the offense is really good. Shooting well from 3, from 2 and at the line. They also value the ball well. The defense, though... #77 overall so far, which is a bit better than its been the last two years but still not where a contender in the league would want it. None of the three losses are bad and they've got wins against Rutgers and Texas Tech. I think the guards are talented but they're really young and usually, that becomes a problem in this league sooner or later.

TEAM WHICH IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO IMAGINE MISSING THE TOURNAMENT

Purdue - Don't take this to mean that I think they're in a class of their own in terms of winning this league...I don't believe that. The favorite? Sure, but probably a more marginal one than many believe right now. They're here because of the work they've already done (4-0 against top 30 KenPom teams, 7-0 against Power 5, Big East and Gonzaga) and that I can't imagine the bottom falling out enough in the league to put them in any jeopardy of missing the Tournament. That said...there are some things I wonder about. Primarily, it has to do with their young guards. They've been really good thus far, but I see two things to watch for. First, Purdue is back to Painter-style defense overall...#25 in the nation right now. However, one weakness of their backcourt is that I don't think they're very athletic, and when that's married to a lack of experience, I can envision trouble at some point in this conference. Imagining them dealing with MSU or PSU, for example...they'll be challenged. Second freshmen typically hit a wall at some point in January or February. How long does that last, how severe is it, and are they all going through it at the same time? Look, this is a team with an almost unguardable weapon in Edey, they're back to playing competent defense, and they rebound well at both ends. However, the youth of those guards and the fact that as a team, they're only shooting 31% from three tells me that they're probably not running away with this thing.