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Welcome to The Final Four Is Not on the Schedule discussion board. A forum for the serious and casual MSU fan. Opinions welcome – stay respectful.
I had posted these before the season and wanted to see how each team looks 1/4 of the way through. Kenpom is not the end all be all by any means but a good snapshot of the league and how much better it has been than expected.
Preseason Current
No. 12 - Indiana-------------No. 7 Purdue (+18)
No. 23 - Iowa---------------No. 8 Indiana (+4)
No. 25 - Purdue-------------No. 16 ILL (+17)
No. 26 - Michigan-----------No. 20 MD (+36)
No. 31 - Michigan State-----No. 21 Iowa (-2)
No. 32 - Ohio State---------No. 22 OSU (+10)
No. 33 - Illinois-------------No. 34 MSU (-3)
No. 46 - Penn State------- No. 35 PSU (+11)
No. 50 - Rutgers---------- No. 39 Rutgers (+11)
No. 55 - Wisconsin-------- No. 46 Wisco (+9)
No. 56 - Maryland----------No. 49 UM (-23)
No. 70 - Northwestern-----No. 74 NW (-4)
No. 108 - Nebraska--------No. 97 Neb (+11)
No. 109 - Minnesota-------No. 149 Minn (-40)
There's more shuffling to come but that's a lot of teams with big jumps. Purdue/ILL/IU look like the upper tier right now but that middle of the pack is going to be a blood bath. Who would've predicted that jump by Maryland but we'll know a lot more about them after their next 4(ILL,@wisc, Tenn, UCLA)
Good stuff.
I think we’re still dealing with some initial input issues with KenPom. General feeling is that you need about 15 games before all of the impact of his black box ratings at the start of the season (so called because he doesn’t disclose what he’s using) are completely worked out of the system. Which means, more or less the restart of Big Ten play in January is when you’re really getting the most value out of his system. Same is true for Torvik as well, from what I can tell.
One final post on this now that the regular season is done to see all the fluctuations. Final +/- is relative to the preseason ranking. As expected it's a little bit all over when we're dealing with so many different variables for each team that couldn't be plugged into the algorithm.
Vastly overperformed preseason rank
-Purdue/MD/NW
Slightly overperformed
-R/Neb
Right on
-ILL/PSU/MSU
Slightly underperformed
-Iowa/UM
Vastly underperformed
-Wisc/OSU/IU/massive gap/ MN
I think most impressive given these #s is Nebraska winning 9 games while being almost outside the top 100.
Preseason 1/4 way through B1G Final
No. 12 - Indiana-------------No. 7 Purdue ------------------No. 6 Purdue(+19)
No. 23 - Iowa---------------No. 8 Indiana ------------------No. 20 MD (+36)
No. 25 - Purdue-------------No. 16 ILL --------------------.No. 28 MSU(+3)
No. 26 - Michigan-----------No. 20 MD --------------------No. 30 IU (-18)
No. 31 - Michigan State-----No. 21 Iowa ------------------No. 32 ILL(-1)
No. 32 - Ohio State---------No. 22 OSU ------------------No. 35 Iowa(-12)
No. 33 - Illinois-------------No. 34 MSU ------------------No. 38 UM (-12)
No. 46 - Penn State------- No. 35 PSU -------------------No. 42 R (+8)
No. 50 - Rutgers---------- No. 39 Rutgers ---------------No. 43 NW(+27)
No. 55 - Wisconsin-------- No. 46 Wisco -----------------No. 50 PSU( -4)
No. 56 - Maryland----------No. 49 UM --------------------No. 57 OSU(-25)
No. 70 - Northwestern-----No. 74 NW --------------------No. 72 Wisc (-17)
No. 108 - Nebraska--------No. 97 Neb --------------------No. 94 Neb (+14)
No. 109 - Minnesota-------No. 149 Minn ------------------ No. 222 MN (-113)